algy.html
ALGY SAYS...


Algy is short for 'algorithm'...and is an experimental model developed by myself for
determining possible areas of storm genesis. It is based on nine atmospheric variables at seven different levels
in the atmosphere and is, by its experimental nature,
not to be used for anything other than as an alternative prognosis. I must stress that this is a 'work in
progress' and is only issued on certain days when in my opinion storms are possible.
Use at your own risk... 


 
• Algy calculates the chances of storms within a 50km radius in a +/- 3 hour timespan either side of the forecast time •
LAST UPDATE: Tuesday, 18 November 2014, 12.09 p.m.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
TEST:  Confidence less than 5% (no hits count)
LOW:  Less than 10%
LOW/MODERATE: 10% to 20%
MODERATE: 20% to 30%
MODERATE/HIGH: 30% to 50%
HIGH: Greater than 50%
TODAY'S AREA OF INTEREST 1: (06Z) Tuesday 18 November 2014
BULLSEYE: Tandur, QLD   CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

* Map of Target Area 1 ---------------------------------- Sounding for Target Area 1 *

* Streamline Forecast ---------------------------------------- Nearest Radar *

* Visible Satellite Picture ------------------------------------- Lightning Tracker *


* NEW!! Beta Test For Target Area 1: Gympie, QLD *


TARGET AREA INFORMATION
TARGET AREA 2 (if required): (06Z) Wednesday 26 October 2011
BULLSEYE: none    CONFIDENCE:


* Streamline Forecast ------------------------------------ Nearest Radar *


ALGY INDEX TODAY: ****
2014/2015 SEASON ALGY STATS

TRIALS: 1   SEVERES:  0   STORMS:  1   MISSES:  0
STRIKE RATE:  100.0%


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Page designed by Kevin Phyland, Wycheproof, Vic. Australia. 2001-2014.

Page updated 18 November 2014


Information and soundings courtesy of READY, FNMOC, WeatherZone, OzForecast.com, Mike Manning, Ben Quinn, and Ken Kato.


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